2013年上半年的workshop文章开始认领。我们将继续在劳动（包括健康、政策评估）、区域和城市、政治经济学、社会经济学、发展经济学等领域内选择论文。时间仍然是每周二下午4-6点，地点在710或714。请参与者积极认领，并与陆铭联系，EMAIL是lm@fudan.edu.cn。workshop的博客将按报告时间发布最新信息和相关评论，参见http://blog.sina.com.cn/developmentcritics。
另外，之前的Workshop还有部分文章非常有趣（如果论文标题前没有姓名），请认领。
政府支出乘数
AART KRAAY, “HOW LARGE IS THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIER? EVIDENCE FROMWORLD BANK LENDING,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2012) 127, 829–887.
Abstract
This article proposes a novel approach to empirically identifying government spending multipliers that relies on two features unique to many low-income countries: (1) borrowing from the World Bank finances a substantial fraction of government spending, and (2) spending on World Bank–financed projects is typically spread out over several years following the original approval of the project. The first fact means that fluctuations in spending on World Bank–financed projects are a significant source of fluctuations in overall government spending in these countries. The second fact means that fluctuations in World Bank–financed Spending in a given year are largely determined by fluctuations in project approval decisions made in previous years, and so are unlikely to be correlated with shocks to output in the current year. I use World Bank project-level disbursement data to isolate the component of World Bank–financed government spending in a given year that is associated with past project approval decisions. I use this as an instrument for total government spending to estimate multipliers in a sample of 29 primarily low-income countries where variation in government spending from this source is large relative to the size of the economy. The resulting spending multipliers are small and reasonably precisely estimated to be in the vicinity of 0.5. JEL Codes: E62, O23.
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ROBERT J. BARRO AND CHARLES J. REDLICK, “MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS FROMGOVERNMENT PURCHASES AND TAXES,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2011) 126, 51–102.
Abstract:
For U.S. annual data that include World War II, the estimated multiplier for temporary defense spending is 0.4–0.5 contemporaneously and 0.6–0.7 over 2 years. If the change in defense spending is “permanent” (gauged by Ramey’s defense news variable), the multipliers are higher by 0.1–0.2. Since all estimated multipliers are significantly less than 1, greater spending crowds out other components of GDP, particularly investment. The lack of good instruments prevents estimation of reliable multipliers for nondefense purchases; multipliers in the literature of two or more likely reflect reverse causation from GDP to nondefense purchases. Increases in average marginal income tax rates (measured by a newly constructed time series) have significantly negative effects on GDP. When interpreted as a tax multiplier, the magnitude is around 1.1. The combination of the estimated spending and tax multipliers implies that the balanced budget multiplier for defense spending is negative. We have some evidence that tax changes affect GDP mainly through substitution effects, rather than wealth effects. JEL Codes: E2, E6, H2, H3, H5.
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（冯猛）集聚效应还是选择效应？
PIERRE-PHILIPPE COMBES, GILLES DURANTON, LAURENT GOBILLON, DIEGO PUGA, AND SÉBASTIEN ROUX, “THE PRODUCTIVITY ADVANTAGES OF LARGE CITIES: DISTINGUISHING AGGLOMERATION FROM FIRM SELECTION,” Econometrica, Vol. 80, No. 6 (November, 2012), 2543–2594
Firms are more productive, on average, in larger cities. Two main explanations have been offered: firm selection (larger cities toughen competition, allowing only the most productive to survive) and agglomeration economies (larger cities promote interactions that increase productivity), possibly reinforced by localized natural advantage. To distinguish between them, we nest a generalized version of a tractable firm selection model and a standard model of agglomeration. Stronger selection in larger cities lefttruncates the productivity distribution, whereas stronger agglomeration right-shifts and dilates the distribution. Using this prediction, French establishment-level data, and a new quantile approach, we show that firm selection cannot explain spatial productivity differences. This result holds across sectors, city size thresholds, establishment samples, and area definitions.
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（袁晓燕）性别失衡与发展
Jane GOLLEY and Rod TYERS, “CHINA’S GENDER IMBALANCE AND ITS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE,” Working Papers in Economics No. 2012-10, UWA Business School, Perth
Abstract
Chinese GDP growth faces rising handicaps that include the slowdown and eventual contraction of its labour force, a complication of which is its rising sex ratio at birth. The undesirable consequences of the resulting gender imbalance include excessive saving as families with boys compete to match their sons with scarce girls, trafficking in women and rising disaffection and crime amongst the low-skill male population. These are reviewed and analysed using a dynamic model of both economic and demographic behaviour. The results show that the proportion of unmatched low-skill males of reproductive age could be as high as one in four by 2030, with numbers too large for female immigration to be a solution. Policies to rebalance the sex ratio at birth will take decades to reduce the sex ratio at reproductive age and any associated allowance of higher fertility would slow growth in real per capita income. Yet the results suggest that the beneficial effects of reduced male disaffection and crime could outweigh the losses from reduced saving and higher population.
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Avraham Ebenstein and Ethan Jennings, 2009, “The Consequences of the “Missing Girls” of China,” World Bank Economic Review, 23, 3, 399-425.
Abstract
In the wake of the One Child Policy of 1979, China experienced an unprecedented rise in the sex ratio at birth. For cohorts born between 1980 and 2000, there are 22 million more men than women. We present a set of simulations that assess how different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth affect the probability of failure to marry in 21st century China and estimate that 10.4% of men will fail to marry. We then discuss three consequences of the high sex ratio and large numbers of unmarried men - the prevalence of prostitution and sexually transmitted infections, the economic and physical well-being of men who fail to marry, and China's ability to care for its elderly, with a particular focus on elderly males who fail to marry. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of policy options for China.
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（周小刚）健康保险的效应
Amy Finkelstein, 2007, “The Aggregate Effects of Health Insurance: Evidence from the Introduction of Medicare,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 122, No. 1, pp. 1-37
Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of market-wide changes in health insurance by examining the single largest change in health insurance coverage in American history: the introduction of Medicare in 1965. I estimate that the impact of Medicare on hospital spending is over six times larger than what the evidence from individual-level changes in health insurance would have predicted. This disproportionately larger effect may arise if market-wide changes in demand alter the incentives of hospitals to incur the fixed costs of entering the market or of adopting new practice styles. I present some evidence of these types of effects. A back of the envelope calculation based on the estimated impact of Medicare suggests that the overall spread of health insurance between 1950 and 1990 may be able to explain about half of the increase in real per capita health spending over this time period.
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（李杰伟）要想富，先修路？不一定
Mark Roberts, Uwe Deichmann, Bernard Fingleton, Tuo Shi, Evaluating China's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 42, Issue 4, July 2012, Pages 580-594
Abstract: Over the last two decades, China has embarked on an ambitious program of expressway network expansion. By facilitating market integration, this program aims to promote efficiency at the national level and contribute to the catch-up of lagging inland regions. This paper evaluates the short-run aggregate and spatial economic impacts of network expansion. We adopt a counterfactual approach based on the hybrid estimation–calibration of a structural ‘new economic geography’ model. Overall, we find that aggregate Chinese real income was approximately 6% higher than it would have been in 2007 had the expressway network not been built, although this does not take into account the opportunity costs associated with expenditure on the network. Although there is considerable heterogeneity in the results, we find no significant reduction in disparities across prefectures and no reduction in urban–rural disparities. If anything, the expressway network appears to have reinforced existing patterns of spatial inequality; although, over time, these will likely be reduced by enhanced migration.
Keywords: China; Transport infrastructure; Economic geography
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（柯蓉）香港回归的影响：一个面板数据的方法
Cheng Hsiao, H. Steve Ching and Shui Ki Wan, “A Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation: Measuring the Benefits of Political and Economic Integration of Hong Kong with Mainland China,” JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, 27: 705–740 (2012)
SUMMARY
We propose a simple-to-implement panel data method to evaluate the impacts of social policy. The basic idea is to exploit the dependence among cross-sectional units to construct the counterfactuals. The cross-sectional correlations are attributed to the presence of some (unobserved) common factors. However, instead of trying to estimate the unobserved factors, we propose to use observed data. We use a panel of 24 countries to evaluate the impact of political and economic integration of Hong Kong with mainland China. We find that the political integration hardly had any impact on the growth of the Hong Kong economy. However, the economic integration has raised Hong Kong’s annual real GDP by about 4%.
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遗传距离与发展
Enrico Spolaore and Romain Wacziarg, “The Diffusion Of Development,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2009, 469-529.
ABSTRACT:
We find that genetic distance, a measure associated with the time elapsed since two populations’ last common ancestors, has a statistically and economically significant effect on income differences across countries, even controlling for measures of geographical distance, climatic differences, transportation costs, and measures of historical, religious, and linguistic distance. We provide an economic interpretation of these findings in terms of barriers to the diffusion of development from the world technological frontier, implying that income differences should be a function of relative genetic distance from the frontier. The empirical evidence strongly supports this barriers interpretation.
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（穆越）灾害、合作与信任
Anh Duc Dang, “Cooperation makes belief :weather variation and sources of social trust in Vietnam,”ANU WP 596.
Abstract
In this paper, I investigate the origins of social trust within Vietnam. By combining a unique contemporary survey of households with historical data on weather variation, I show that individuals who are heavily threatened by negative weather fluctuation exhibit more trust in neighbours and others within their close group . The evidence indicates that the effects of weather variation on social trust are transmitted through strengthening the cooperation among village peasants as they cope with risk and uncertainty. The results also show that households with higher proportion of agricultural income tend to trust people more. However, the increased strengthening of the village relationships does not erode family ties.
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（刘志阔）走出非洲：基因与比较经济发展
Ashraf Quamrul and Oded Galor, “The Out of Africa Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity and Comparative Development,” American Economic Review, 103(1), 1-46 (February 2013)
This research argues that deep-rooted factors, determined tens of thousands of years ago, had a significant effect on the course of economic development from the dawn of human civilization to the contemporary era. It advances and empirically establishes the hypothesis that in the course of the exodus of Homo sapiens out of Africa, variation in migratory distance from the cradle of humankind to various settlements across the globe affected genetic diversity and has had a direct long-lasting effect on the pattern of comparative economic development that could not be captured by contemporary geographical, institutional, and cultural factors. In particular, the level of genetic diversity within a society is found to have a hump-shaped effect on development outcomes in the pre-colonial era, reflecting the trade-off between the beneficial and the detrimental effects of diversity on productivity. Moreover, the level of genetic diversity in each country today (i.e., genetic diversity and genetic distance among and between its ancestral populations) has a similar non-monotonic effect on the contemporary levels of income per capita. While the intermediate level of genetic diversity prevalent among the Asian and European populations has been conducive for development, the high degree of diversity among African populations and the low degree of diversity among Native American populations have been a detrimental force in the development of these regions. Further, the optimal level of diversity has increased in the process of industrialization, as the beneficial forces associated with greater diversity have intensified in an environment characterized by more rapid technological progress.
(梁文泉)技能与居住地的匹配
Rebecca Diamond, “The Determinants and Welfare Implications of US Workers, Diverging Location Choices by Skill: 1980-2000,” Harvard University, Job Market Paper
Abstract
From 1980 to 2000, the substantial rise in the U.S. college-high school graduate wage gap coincided with an increase in geographic sorting as college graduates increasingly concentrated in high wage, high rent metropolitan areas, relative to lower skill workers. The increase in wage inequality may not reflect a similar increase in well-being inequality because high and low skill workers increasingly paid different housing costs and consumed different local amenities. This paper examines the determinants and welfare implications of the increased geographic skill sorting. I estimate a structural spatial equilibrium model of local labor demand, housing supply, labor supply, and amenity levels. The model allows local amenity and productivity levels to endogenously respond to a city’s skill-mix. I identify the model parameters using local labor demand changes driven by variation in cities’ industry mixes and interactions of these labor demand shocks with determinants of housing supply (land use regulations and land availability). The GMM estimates indicate that cross-city changes in firms’ demands for high and low skill labor were the underlying forces of the increase in geographic skill sorting. An increase in labor demand for college relative to non-college workers increases a city’s college employment share, which then endogenously raises the local productivity of all workers and improves local amenities. Local wage and amenity growth generates in-migration, driving up rents. My estimates show that low skill workers are less willing to pay high housing costs to live in high-amenity cities, leading them to elect more affordable, low-amenity cities. I find that the combined effects of changes in cities’ wages, rents, and endogenous amenities increased well-being inequality between high school and college graduates by a significantly larger amount than would be suggested by the increase in the college wage gap alone.
（梁文泉）超微观数据研究人力资本外部性
Leonard Wantchekon, Natalija Novta and Marko Klasnja, 2012, “Education and Human Capital Externalities: Evidence from Colonial Benin,” working paper.
Abstract
We use a unique dataset on students from the first regional schools in colonial Benin, to investigate the effect of education on income, occupation and political participation. Because of the near random selection of the school location and the first student cohorts, we can estimate the effect of education by comparing the treated to the untreated living in the same village, as well as those living in villages where no schools were set up. We find a significant positive treatment effect of education on a number of outcomes. For example, the treated have better living standards, are less likely to be farmers and more likely to be politically active. Second, we look at the outcomes of the descendants. Similar to the first-generation effects, parents' education have a large positive effect on their children's educational attainment, living standards, and social networks. Third, there are large positive externalities of education in the second generation descendants of the untreated in villages with a school have substantially better outcomes than descendants in villages without a school. We find evidence that these externalities run through the parents' enhanced social networks. Fourth, the strength of extended families is documented as nephews and nieces directly benefit from education of their uncles they are almost as equally educated as the students' children, and are more educated than descendants without any educated members in a family. We demonstrate that these within-family externalities represent a family-tax," as educated uncles transfer resources to the extended family.
下载地址：http://www.google.com.hk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=Education+and+Human+Capital+Externalities%3A+Evidence+from+Colonial+Benin&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDYQFjAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffiles.nyu.edu%2Fnn509%2Fpublic%2FBeninWKN-9-24-12.pdf&ei=Z8EqUZ2TLsvtkgXTtIHwDg&usg=AFQjCNG-ZvN9hpkPXTGk42f-0SuSfc6mgw
（袁晓燕）文本分析与行为
Rich Nielsen, 2012, “Jihadi Radicalization of Muslim Clerics,” Harvard University, working paper.
Abstract
This paper explains why some Muslim clerics adopt the ideology of militant Jihad while others do not. I argue that clerics strategically adopt or reject Jihadi ideology because of career incentives generated by the structure of cleric educational networks. Well-connected clerics enjoy substantial success at pursuing comfortable careers within state-run religious institutions and they reject Jihadi ideology in exchange for continued material support from the state. Clerics with poor educational networks cannot rely on connections to advance through the state-run institutions, so many pursue careers outside of the system by appealing directly to lay audiences for support. These clerics are more likely to adopt Jihadi ideology because it helps them demonstrate to potential supporters that they have not been theologically coopted by political elites. I provide evidence of these dynamics by collecting and analyzing 29,430 fatwas, articles, and books written by 91 contemporary clerics. Using statistical natural language processing, I measure the extent to which each cleric adopts Jihadi ideology in their writing. I combine this with biographical and network information about each cleric to trace the process by which poorly-connected clerics become more likely to adopt Jihadi ideology.
下载地址：http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~rnielsen/jihad.pdf
携程的“在家工作”实验
Nicholas Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts, and Zhichun Jenny Ying, 2013, “Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment,” NBER Working Paper No. 18871.
ABSTRACT
About 10% of US employees now regularly work from home (WFH), but there are concerns this can lead to “shirking from home.” We report the results of a WFH experiment at CTrip, a 16,000- employee, NASDAQ-listed Chinese travel agency. Call center employees who volunteered to WFH were randomly assigned to work from home or in the office for 9 months. Home working led to a 13% performance increase, of which about 9% was from working more minutes per shift (fewer breaks and sick-days) and 4% from more calls per minute (attributed to a quieter working environment). Home workers also reported improved work satisfaction and experienced less turnover, but their promotion rate conditional on performance fell. Due to the success of the experiment, CTrip rolled-out the option to WFH to the whole firm and allowed the experimental employees to re-select between the home or office. Interestingly, over half of them switched, which led to the gains from WFH almost doubling to 22%. This highlights the benefits of learning and selection effects when adopting modern management practices like WFH.
下载地址：http://www.nber.org/papers/w18871
