2020年下半年的 Workshop 文章开始认领。我们将继续在劳动（包括健康、政策评估)、区域和城市、政治经济学、社会经济学、发展经济学等领域内选择论文。时间：每周二下午4点至6点，地点在复旦大学经济学院 710 或 714。请参与者积极认领，并与方梦婷（mt_fang@163.com）和刘志阔（lzhikuo@163.com）联系。我们的微信号（flcds2014），也将在第一时间推送最新信息和相关评论，欢迎大家关注。
Horn S , Reinhart C M , Trebesch C . China's Overseas Lending[J]. CEPR Discussion Papers, 2020.
Compared with China’s pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, characteristics, and determinants of China’s capital exports building a new database of 5000 loans and grants to 152 countries, 1949-2017. We find that 50% of China’s lending to developing countries is not reported to the IMF or World Bank. These “hidden debts” distort policy surveillance, risk pricing, and debt sustainability analyses. Since China’s overseas lending is almost entirely official (state-controlled), the standard “push” and “pull” drivers of private cross-border flows do not apply in the same way.
（推荐人：钟辉勇）
Abadie A, Athey S, Imbens G W, et al. When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering[J]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2017.
In empirical work in economics it is common to report standard errors that account for clustering of units. Typically, the motivation given for the clustering adjustments is that unobserved components in outcomes for units within clusters are correlated. However, because correlation may occur across more than one dimension, this motivation makes it difficult to justify why researchers use clustering in some dimensions, such as geographic, but not others, such as age cohorts or gender. This motivation also makes it difficult to explain why one should not cluster with data from a randomized experiment. In this paper, we argue that clustering is in essence a design problem, either a sampling design or an experimental design issue. It is a sampling design issue if sampling follows a two stage process where in the first stage, a subset of clusters were sampled randomly from a population of clusters, and in the second stage, units were sampled randomly from the sampled clusters. In this case the clustering adjustment is justified by the fact that there are clusters in the population that we do not see in the sample. Clustering is an experimental design issue if the assignment is correlated within the clusters. We take the view that this second perspective best fits the typical setting in economics where clustering adjustments are used. This perspective allows us to shed new light on three questions: (i) when should one adjust the standard errors for clustering, (ii) when is the conventional adjustment for clustering appropriate, and (iii) when does the conventional adjustment of the standard errors matter.
（推荐人：唐珏）
研究主题：Trade War
推荐语by刘志阔：贸易战以来，出现一系列讨论贸易战的文章，值得放到一起来研读，尤其QJE和AER的两篇文章。
Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2020). The return to protectionism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), 1-55.
After decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the U.S. raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying complete pass-through of tariffs to duty-inclusive prices. The resulting losses to U.S. consumers and firms who buy imports was $51 billion, or 0.27% of GDP. We embed the estimated trade elasticities in a general-equilibrium model of the U.S. economy. After accounting for tariff revenue and gains to domestic producers, the aggregate real income loss was $7.2 billion, or 0.04% of GDP. Import tariffs favored sectors concentrated in politically competitive counties, and the model implies that tradeable-sector workers in heavily Republican counties were the most negatively affected due to the retaliatory tariffs.
Flaaen, Aaron, Ali Hortaçsu, and Felix Tintelnot. "The production relocation and price effects of US trade policy: the case of washing machines." American Economic Review 110.7 (2020): 2103-27.
We analyze several rounds of U.S. import restrictions against washing machines. Using retail price data, we estimate the price effect of these import restrictions by comparing the price changes of washers with those of other appliances. We find that in response to the 2018 tariffs on nearly all source countries, the price of washers rose by nearly 12 percent; the price of dryers—a complementary good not subject to tariffs—increased by an equivalent amount. Factoring in the effect of dryers and price increases by domestic brands, our estimates for the 2018 tariffs on washers imply a tariff elasticity of consumer prices of between 110 and 230 percent. The 2016 antidumping duties against China—which accounted for the overwhelming majority of U.S. imports—led to minor price movements due to subsequent production relocation to other export platform countries. Perhaps surprisingly, the 2012 antidumping duties against Korea led to relocation of production to China, actually resulting in lower washer prices in the United States. We find that our measure of the tariff elasticity of consumer prices may differ in sign and magnitude from conventional pass-through estimates which are based on a regression of country-specific import price changes on country-specific tariff changes. Production relocation effects, price changes by domestic brands, and price changes of complementary goods all contribute to the differences between these measures.
其他相关：
Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. "The impact of the 2018 tariffs on prices and welfare." Journal of Economic Perspectives 33.4 (2019): 187-210.
We examine conventional approaches to evaluating the economic impact of protectionist trade policies. We illustrate these conventional approaches by applying them to the tariffs introduced by the Trump administration during 2018. In the wake of this increase in trade protection, the United States experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and the complete pass-through of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods. Therefore, the full incidence of the tariffs has fallen on domestic consumers and importers so far, and our estimates imply a reduction in aggregate US real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. We see similar patterns for foreign countries that have retaliated with their own tariffs against the United States, which suggests that the trade war has also reduced the real income of these other countries.
Cavallo, A., Gopinath, G., Neiman, B., & Tang, J. (2019). Tariff passthrough at the border and at the store: evidence from US trade policy (No. w26396). National Bureau of Economic Research.
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy -- particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China -- on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to total prices paid by importers, suggesting the tariffs' incidence has fallen largely on the US. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese Renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, using product-level data from several large multi-national retailers, we demonstrate that the impact of the tariffs on retail prices is more mixed. Some affected product categories have seen sharp price increases, but the difference between affected and unaffected products is generally quite modest, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. These retailers' imports increased after the initial announcement of tariffs, so the intermediate passthrough of tariffs to their prices may not persist. Finally, in contrast to the case of foreign exporters facing US tariffs, we show that US exporters lowered their prices on goods subjected to foreign retaliatory tariffs compared to exports of non-targeted goods.
Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, Julian Reif.”The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction.” American Economic Review,109.12(2019): 4178-4219.
Abstract：We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mortality effects are concentrated in about 25 percent of the elderly population.
推荐语by匿名：这个其实有较多同类文献，这篇能发AER，应该有其独特之处。其中提到机器学习，可以关注。
Sebastian Heise, Tommaso Porzio(2019)"Spatial Wage Gaps in Frictional Labor Markets", NBER working paper
Abstract: We develop a job ladder model with labor reallocation across firms and space to study why differences in wages and labor productivity persist across regions within the same country. We apply the model to Germany, where real wages are still 26% lower in the East than in the West. Estimating the model on matched employer-employee data, we find that 60% of the gap is due to the fact that workers are paid a higher wage per efficiency unit in West Germany. We quantify a rich set of frictions preventing worker reallocation across space and across firms, and find that three spatial barriers impede East Germans’ ability to migrate West: migration costs, workers’ preferences to live in their home region, and more frequent job opportunities received from home. The estimated model highlights that the spatial barriers needed to generate the large wage gap between East and West are small relative to the frictions preventing the reallocation of labor across firms. As a result, policies that directly promote regional integration lead to smaller aggregate benefits than equally costly subsidies to worker hiring within region. Our findings show the importance of studying spatial wage gaps and frictional wage dispersion within a unified framework.
Lorenzo Caliendo, Luca David Opromolla, Fernando Parro, Alessandro Sforza(2017). "Goods and Factor Market Integration: A Quantitative Assessment of the EU Enlargement.” NBER working paper
Abstract: The economic effects from labor market integration are crucially affected by the extent to which countries are open to trade. In this paper we build a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model with trade in goods and labor mobility across countries to study and quantify the economic effects of trade and labor market integration. In our model trade is costly and features households of different skills and nationalities facing costly forward-looking relocation decisions. We use the EU Labour Force Survey to construct migration flows by skill and nationality across 17 countries for the period 2002-2007. We then exploit the timing variation of the 2004 EU enlargement to estimate the elasticity of migration flows to labor mobility costs, and to identify the change in labor mobility costs associated to the actual change in policy. We apply our model and use these estimates, as well as the observed changes in tariffs, to quantify the effects from the EU enlargement. We find that new member state countries are the largest winners from the EU enlargement, and in particular unskilled labor. We find smaller welfare gains for EU-15 countries. However, in the absence of changes to trade policy, the EU-15 would have been worse off after the enlargement. We study even further the interaction effects between trade and migration policies and the role of different mechanisms in shaping our results. Our results highlight the importance of trade for the quantification of the welfare and migration effects from labor market integration.
Itskhoki, Oleg, and Benjamin Moll. "Optimal Development Policies With Financial Frictions." Econometrica 87.1 (2019): 139-173.
Abstract: Is there a role for governments in emerging countries to accelerate economic development by intervening in product and factor markets? To address this question, we study optimal dynamic Ramsey policies in a standard growth model with financial frictions. The optimal policy intervention involves pro‐business policies like suppressed wages in early stages of the transition, resulting in higher entrepreneurial profits and faster wealth accumulation. This, in turn, relaxes borrowing constraints in the future, leading to higher labor productivity and wages. In the long run, optimal policy reverses sign and becomes pro‐worker. In a multi‐sector extension, optimal policy subsidizes sectors with a latent comparative advantage and, under certain circumstances, involves a depreciated real exchange rate. Our results provide an efficiency rationale, but also identify caveats, for many of the development policies actively pursued by dynamic emerging economies.
推荐语by匿名：产业政策问题一直备受关注，那么存在金融摩擦情景下的什么才是最优的产业政策？可以参考这个框架讨论不同的最优产业政策问题。
Paul Dolfen, Liran Einav, Peter J. Klenow, Benjamin Klopack, Jonathan D. Levin, Laurence Levin, Wayne Best (2019).”Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce.” NBER Working Paper.
Abstract: E-Commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending in the U.S. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate that E-Commerce spending reached 8% of consumption by 2017, yielding consumers the equivalent of a 1% permanent boost to their consumption, or over $1,000 per household. While some of the gains arose from saving travel costs of buying from local merchants, most of the gains stemmed from substituting to online merchants. Higher income cardholders gained more, as did consumers in more densely populated counties.
（推荐人：兰小欢老师）
