1.曹晖（上海大学）
Hansen B. Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving[J]. American Economic Review, 2015, 105(4): 1581-1617.
I test the effect of harsher punishments and sanctions on driving under the influence (DUI). In this setting, punishments are determined by strict rules on blood alcohol content (BAC) and previous offenses. Regression discontinuity derived estimates suggest that having a BAC above the DUI threshold reduces recidivism by up to 2 percentage points (17 percent). Likewise having a BAC over the aggravated DUI threshold reduces recidivism by an additional percentage point (9 percent). The results suggest that the additional sanctions experienced by drunk drivers at BAC thresholds are effective in reducing repeat drunk driving.
2.王大哲（浙江大学管理学院）
Michaels G, Rauch F, Redding S J. Urbanization and Structural Transformation[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2012, 127(2): 535-586.
Abstract: We examine urbanization using new data that allow us to track the evolution of population in rural and urban areas in the United States from 1880 to 2000. We find a positive correlation between initial population density and subsequent population growth for intermediate densities, which increases the dispersion of the population density distribution over time. We use theory and empirical evidence to show this pattern of population growth is the result of differences in agriculture's initial share of employment across population densities, combined with structural transformation that shifts employment away from agriculture.
3.杨徐健（复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院）-管理学杂志对企业家从政的研究
Li X H, Liang X. A Confucian Social Model of Political Appointments among Chinese Private-Firm Entrepreneurs[J]. Academy of Management Journal, 2015, 58(2): 592-617.
Abstract: In China, many successful private-firm entrepreneurs hold representational appointments in political councils such as the People's Congress (PC) or People's Political Consultative Conference (PPCC). By considering Western theories of life career development and Confucian doctrines of personal development, we seek to understand the complex motivations of successful entrepreneurs for joining political councils. We propose a Confucian social model of role transition to explain the pursuit and attainment of political appointment in China. We hypothesize that the “proself” and “prosocial” motives for seeking political connections will, respectively, attenuate or strengthen the relationship between private-firm entrepreneurs' business success and their intention and attainment in seeking political appointment. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 166 private-firm chief executive officers (CEOs) and chairs, and a longitudinal archival study of 1,323 Chinese publicly listed private firms from 2006 to 2012. The findings support our hypotheses on the moderating effect of the proself and prosocial motives. The study offers insights into how Confucian cultural values may explain the dynamic between business success and political appointments among private-firm entrepreneurs in China.
4.钱瑞梅（复旦大学经济学院）-四万亿专题
Burdekin R C K, Weidenmier M D. Assessing the impact of the Chinese stimulus package at home and abroad: A damp squib?[J]. China Economic Review, 2015, 33: 137-162.
Abstract: The November 2008 Chinese stimulus package seemed to provide almost ideal preconditions for governmental success based upon its size, its concentration on infrastructure, accompanying fiscal expansion at the local level, and supportive expansions in bank lending rates. Our sectoral-level analysis suggests that investor reactions were quite tightly focused, however, with Shanghai market outperformance concentrated primarily in the nation's property, construction, and building materials sectors. Further significant post-stimulus gains accrued to the specifically targeted automobile, steel and textile industries. Meanwhile, Chinese company listings in Hong Kong and New York evinced little sectoral outperformance.
Ouyang M, Peng Y. The treatment-effect estimation: A case study of the 2008 economic stimulus package of China[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2015.
Abstract: Researchers often face the challenge of estimating the counterfactuals to evaluate the treatment effects. Hsiao et al. (2012) propose a method that offers more flexibilities by allowing the influence of the unobservable latent factors to vary cross-section. This paper relaxes the linear conditional mean assumption in their method by extending it to a semi-parametric setting. The asymptotic distribution properties of the average treatment effect estimator is derived and studied. The semi-parametric model and the Hsiao et al. (2012) are both applied to study the macroeconomic effect of the 2008 Chinese Economic Stimulus Program. The estimation results show the fiscal stimulus plan had raised the annual real GDP growth in China by about 3.2%, but only temporarily. These results are robust to linear setting, semiparametric setting, and various control group selections. The temporary boost in economic activities of the stimulus plan is also evident in the estimation of other economic indicators such as real investment, real consumption, real export, and real import.
Wen Y, Wu J. Withstanding great recession like China[J]. FRB of St. Louis Working Paper No, 2014.
The Great Recession was characterized by two related phenomena: (i) a jobless recovery and (ii) a permanent drop in aggregate output. Data show that the United States, Europe, and even countries with lesser ties to the international financial system have suffered large permanent losses in aggregate output and employment since the financial crisis, despite unprecedented monetary injections. However, the symptoms of the Great Recession were not observed in China, despite a 45% permanent drop in its exports one of the largest trade collapses in world history since the Great Depression. Our empirical analysis shows that China’s success in escaping the Great Recession is attributable to its bold and powerful 4 trillion renminbi stimulus package launched in late 2008. We study the precise channels through which the stimulus programs work in China. We also construct a simple model to rationalize the dramatically different impacts of stimulus programs across countries.
5.赵婷（复旦大学经济学院）- 移民的影响
Abramitzky R, Boustan L P, Eriksson K. A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2014, 122(3): 467-506.
Abstract: During the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913), the US maintained an open border, absorbing 30 million European immigrants. Prior cross-sectional work on this era finds that immigrants initially held lower-paid occupations than natives but experienced rapid convergence over time. In newly-assembled panel data, we show that, in fact, the average immigrant did not face a substantial occupation-based earnings penalty upon first arrival and experienced occupational advancement at the same rate as natives. Cross-sectional patterns are driven by biases from declining arrival cohort quality and departures of negatively-selected return migrants. We show that assimilation patterns vary substantially across sending countries and persist in the second generation.
6.唐珏（复旦大学经济学院）
Persson P, Zhuravskaya E. The limits of career concerns in federalism: evidence from China[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2015.
Abstract: Performance-based promotion schemes in administrative hierarchies have limitations. Chinese provincial leaders, despite facing strong career concerns, make different policy decisions depending on their career backgrounds. Provincial party secretaries who rose from low to high positions within the province they govern (“locals”) spend a higher share of budgetary resources on education and health care and invest less in construction infrastructure than party secretaries who made their most significant career advancements in other provinces (“outsiders”). Identification comes from variation in central leadership and term limits. As the promotion mechanism rewards infrastructure investments, locals are less likely to be promoted at the end of the term. We explore various mechanisms and provide evidence that the difference between locals and outsiders is not driven by knowledge or experience. Several pieces of evidence suggest that locals cater to low-level provincial elites, who helped them rise to power. Thus, local career trajectories limit the power of career concerns by fostering competing allegiances.
7.夏良科（复旦大学经济学院博士后）-中国环境污染的动态变化、影响因素和制度原因
Siqi Zheng , Matthew E. Kahn. Understanding China's Urban Pollution Dynamics.. Journal of Economic Literature. 2013.51(3): 731-772.
Zheng S, Sun C, Qi Y, et al. The evolving geography of China's industrial production: implications for pollution dynamics and urban quality of life[J]. Journal of Economic Surveys, 2014, 28(4): 709-724.
Siqi Zheng, Jing Cao, Matthew E. Kahn, Cong Sun. Real Estate Valuation and Cross-Boundary Air Pollution Externalities: Evidence from Chinese Cities. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2014, 48(3): 398-414.
Siqi Zheng, Matthew Kahn, Weizeng Sun, Danglun Luo. Incentives for China’s Urban Mayors to Mitigate Pollution Externalities: The Role of the Central Government and Public Environmentalism. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2014, 47: 61-71.
8.金刚（南京大学经济学院）
Young A. Structural Transformation, the Mismeasurement of Productivity Growth, and the Cost Disease of Services[J]. The American Economic Review, 2014, 104(11): 3635-3667.
Abstract: If workers self-select into industries based upon their relative productivity in different tasks, and comparative advantage is aligned with absolute advantage, then the average efficacy of a sector's workforce will be negatively correlated with its employment share. This might explain the difference in the reported productivity growth of contracting goods and expanding services. Instrumenting with defense expenditures, I find the elasticity of worker efficacy with respect to employment shares is substantially negative, albeit imprecisely estimated. The estimates suggest that the view that goods and services have similar productivity growth rates is a plausible alternative characterization of growth in developed economies.
9.赵阳（上海财经大学）
Garcia-Macia D, Hsieh C T, Klenow P J. How Destructive is Innovation?[J]. 2015.
Abstract: Entering and incumbent plants can create new products and displace existing products. Incumbents can also improve their existing products. How much of aggregate growth occurs through each of these channels? Using U.S. Census data on manufacturing plants from 1992, 1997 and 2002, we arrive at three main conclusions: First, most growth appears to come from incumbents. We infer this from the modest employment share of entering plants. Second, most growth seems occur through improvements of existing varieties rather than creation of brand new varieties. We infer this because of modest net entry of plants and gently falling exit rates as plants expand (the latter suggesting bigger plants produce better products more than a wider array of products). Third, own-product improvements by incumbents appear to have been more important than creative destruction. We infer this because the distribution of job creation and destruction has thinner tails than if growth mostly came from creative destruction.
10.冯博（复旦大学经济学院）
Adda J, Dustmann C, Stevens K. The career costs of children[J]. 2011.
Abstract: This paper studies fertility and labor supply of women to quantify the life-cycle career costs associated with children. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model, extending existing work by incorporating occupational choices, allowing for skill atrophy that is occupation specific and can vary over the career cycle, and by introducing risk aversion and savings. This allows us to better understand the interplay between job characteristics, such as skill atrophy or differential wage growth, and the planning of fertility, as well as the sorting that takes place both into the labor market and across occupations, and to capture the trade-off between occupational choice and desired fertility. We use this model to determine the costs of children, how they decompose into loss of skills during interruptions, lost earnings opportunities, lower accumulation of experience, and selection into more child-friendly occupations, and analyze what are the longer run effects of policies that encourage fertility.
11.邓东升（复旦大学经济学院）
Munshi K, Rosenzweig M. Networks and misallocation: Insurance, migration, and the rural-urban wage gap[J]. The American Economic Review, 2016, 106(1): 46-98.
Abstract: We provide an explanation for large spatial wage disparities and low male migration in India that is based on the trade-off between consumption-smoothing, provided by caste-based rural insurance networks, and the income-gains from migration. Our theory generates two key predictions, which we verify empirically: (i) relatively wealthy households within the caste who benefit less from the redistributive (surplus-maximizing) network will be more likely to have migrant members, and (ii) households facing greater rural income-risk (who benefit more from the insurance network) are less likely to have migrant members. Structural estimates of the model show that even small improvements in formal insurance decrease the spatial misallocation of labor by substantially increasing migration.
12.陈丹（复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院）
Bustos P, Caprettini B, Ponticelli J. Agricultural productivity and structural transformation. Evidence from Brazil[J]. Evidence from Brazil (August 13, 2013). Chicago Booth Research Paper, 2013 (14-07).
Abstract: We study the effects of the adoption of new agricultural technologies on structural transformation. To guide empirical work, we present a simple model where the effect of agricultural productivity on industrial development depends on the factor bias of technical change. We test the predictions of the model by studying the introduction of genetically engineered soybean seeds in Brazil, which had heterogeneous effects on agricultural productivity across areas with different soil and weather characteristics. We find that technical change in soy production was strongly labor saving and led to industrial growth, as predicted by the model.
13.张翕（上海交通大学）
Hornbeck R, Keniston D. Creative Destruction: Barriers to Urban Growth and the Great Boston Fire of 1872[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014.
Abstract: Historical city growth, in the United States and worldwide, has required remarkable transformation of outdated durable buildings. Private land-use decisions may generate inefficiencies, however, due to externalities and various rigidities. This paper analyzes new plot-level data in the aftermath of the Great Boston Fire of 1872, estimating substantial economic gains from the created opportunity for widespread reconstruction. An important mechanism appears to be positive externalities from neighbors' reconstruction. Strikingly, gains from this opportunity for urban redevelopment were sufficiently large that increases in land values were comparable to the previous value of all buildings burned.
14.郑怡林（上海交通大学）
Hsieh C T, Moretti E. Why Do Cities Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015.
Abstract: We study how growth of cities determines the growth of nations. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data on 220 US metropolitan areas from 1964 to 2009, we first estimate the contribution of each U.S. city to national GDP growth. We show that the contribution of a city to aggregate growth can differ significantly from what one might naively infer from the growth of the city’s GDP. Despite some of the strongest rate of local growth, New York, San Francisco and San Jose were only responsible for a small fraction of U.S. growth in this period. By contrast, almost half of aggregate US growth was driven by growth of cities in the South. We then provide a normative analysis of potential growth. We show that the dispersion of the conditional average nominal wage across US cities doubled, indicating that worker productivity is increasingly different across cities. We calculate that this increased wage dispersion lowered aggregate U.S. GDP by 13.5%. Most of the loss was likely caused by increased constraints to housing supply in high productivity cities like New York, San Francisco and San Jose. Lowering regulatory constraints in these cities to the level of the median city would expand their work force and increase U.S. GDP by 9.5%. We conclude that the aggregate gains in output and welfare from spatial reallocation of labor are likely to be substantial in the U.S., and that a major impediment to a more efficient spatial allocation of labor are housing supply constraints. These constraints limit the number of US workers who have access to the most productive of American cities. In general equilibrium, this lowers income and welfare of all US workers.
15.唐俊超（复旦大学社政学院社会学系）
Satyanath S, Voigtländer N, Voth H J. Bowling for fascism: social capital and the rise of the Nazi Party[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013.
Abstract: Social capital is often associated with desirable political and economic outcomes. This paper contributes to the literature exploring the “dark side” of social capital, examining the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany. We collect new data on the density of associations in 229 German towns and cities. Denser networks of clubs and societies went hand-in-hand with a more rapid rise of the Nazi Party. Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least 15% faster Nazi Party entry. All types of societies – from veteran associations to animal breeders, chess clubs and choirs – positively predict NS Party entry. Party membership, in turn, is correlated with electoral success. These results suggest that social capital aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany’s first democracy. Crucially, we examine the question when a vibrant civic society can have corrosive effects. We show that the effects of social capital depended on the political context – in federal states with more stable governments, higher association density was not associated with faster Nazi Party entry.
