2015 年下半年的 Workshop 文章开始认领。我们将继续在劳动（包括健康、政策评估）、区域和城市、政治经济学、社会经济学、发展经济学等领域内选择论文。时间：每周二下午3点半至5点半，地点在复旦大学经济学院 710 或 714。请参与者积极认领，并与刘志阔（lzhikuo@163.com）和邓东升（ddswhu@outlook.com）联系。我们的微信号（flcds2014），也将在第一时间推送最新信息和相关评论，欢迎大家关注。
1.（唐为）产业集聚和城市发展
Davis M A, Fisher J D M, Whited T M. Macroeconomic implications of agglomeration[J]. Econometrica, 2014, 82(2): 731-764.
Abstract: Cities exist because of the productivity gains that arise from clustering production and workers, a process called agglomeration. How important is agglomeration for aggregate growth? This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of cities and uses it to estimate the effect of local agglomeration on aggregate growth. We combine aggregate time-series and city-level panel data to estimate the model's parameters via generalized method of moments. The estimates imply a statistically and economically significant impact of local agglomeration on the growth rate of per capita consumption, raising it by about 10%.
Chabé-Ferret S. Analysis of the bias of Matching and Difference-in-Difference under alternative earnings and selection processes[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 185(1): 110-123.
Abstract: Matching and Difference in Difference (DID) are two widespread methods that use pre-treatment outcomes to correct for selection bias. I detail the sources of bias of both estimators in a model of earnings dynamics and entry into a Job Training Program (JTP) and I assess their performances using Monte Carlo simulations of the model calibrated with realistic parameter values. I find that Matching generally underestimates the average causal effect of the program and gets closer to the true effect when conditioning on an increasing number of pre-treatment outcomes. When selection bias is symmetric around the treatment date, DID is consistent when implemented symmetrically—i.e. comparing outcomes observed the same number of periods before and after the treatment date. When selection bias is not symmetric, Monte Carlo simulations show that Symmetric DID still performs better than Matching, especially in the middle of the life-cycle. These results are consistent with estimates of the bias of Matching and DID from randomly assigned JTPs. Some of the virtues of Symmetric DID extend to programs other than JTPs allocated according to a cutoff eligibility rule.
2.（常晨） 国家尺度与制度质量
Fors H C. Do island states have better institutions?[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2014, 42(1): 34-60.
Abstract: Since the end of World War II, the number of countries in the world has increased dramatically. Many of these newly independent countries are small both in terms of population and geography, and several are islands. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of island status and country size on institutional quality, and to determine if these institutional effects can explain the relatively strong economic performance of islands and small countries. I distinguish between political institutions (Democracy) and economic institutions (Rule of Law). One of the main findings of this paper is that the relationship between island status and institutional quality is significantly positive, and that these results are robust to the inclusion of a number of control variables. Further, I find that country size is negatively related to institutional quality, which is in keeping with previous results. These results provide further support for the hypothesis that institutions account for these countries’ relatively better economic performance.
3.（周梦天）土地确权的经济后果：来自墨西哥土改的经验
De Janvry A, Emerick K, Gonzalez-Navarro M, et al. Certified to migrate: Property rights and migration in rural Mexico[J]. 2012.
Abstract: Improving security of tenure over agricultural land has recently been the focus of a number of large land certification programs. While the main justification for these efforts was to increase productive investments and facilitate land rental transactions, we show that if access rights were tied to actual land use in the previous regime, these programs can also lead to increased outmigration from agrarian communities. We analyze the Mexican ejido land certification program which, from 1993 to 2006, awarded ownership certificates to 3.6 million farmers on about half the country’s agricultural land. Using the program rollout over time and space as an identification strategy, we show that households that obtained land certificates were 28% more likely to have a migrant member. The effect was larger for households with ex-ante weaker property rights and with larger off-farm opportunities. At the community level, certificates led to a 5% reduction in population, and the effects were larger in lower land quality environments. We show evidence of certificates leading to sorting, with larger farmers staying and land-poor farmers leaving in high productivity areas. We use satellite imagery to determine that, on average, cultivated land was not reduced because of the program, consistent with increases in agricultural labor productivity. Furthermore, in high productivity areas, the certification program led to an increase in cultivated land compared to low productivity areas.
4.（邓东升）Equilibrium Tuition, Applications, Admissions and Enrollment in College Market
Fu C. Equilibrium tuition, applications, admissions, and enrollment in the college market[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 2014, 122(2): 225-281.
Abstract: I develop and estimate a structural equilibrium model of the college market. Students, having heterogeneous abilities and preferences, make college application decisions, subject to uncertainty and application costs. Colleges, observing only noisy measures of student ability, choose tuition and admissions policies to compete for more able students. Tuition, applications, admissions and enrollment are joint outcomes from a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. I estimate the structural parameters of the model using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, via a three-step procedure to deal with potential multiple equilibria. In counterfactual experiments, I use the model …rst to examine the extent to which college enrollment can be increased by expanding the supply of colleges, and then to assess the importance of various measures of student ability.
5.（邵珠琼） 环境污染和工作效率
Bharadwaj P, Gibson M, Zivin J G, et al. Gray Matters: Fetal Pollution Exposure and Human Capital Formation[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014.
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of fetal exposure to air pollution on 4th grade test scores in Santiago, Chile. We rely on comparisons across siblings which address concerns about locational sorting and all other time-invariant family characteristics that can lead to endogenous exposure to poor environmental quality. We also exploit data on air quality alerts to help address concerns related to short-run time-varying avoidance behavior, which has been shown to be important in a number of other contexts. We find a strong negative effect from fetal exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) on math and language skills measured in 4th grade. These effects are economically significant and our back of the envelope calculations suggest that the 50% reduction in CO in Santiago between 1990 and 2005 increased lifetime earnings by approximately 100 million USD per birth cohort.
6.（冯博）新教改革对经济增长的影响
Cantoni D. The economic effects of the Protestant Reformation: testing the Weber hypothesis in the German Lands[J]. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2014.
Abstract: Following Max Weber, many theories have hypothesized that Protestantism should have favored economic development. With its religious heterogeneity, the Holy Roman Empire presents an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis. Using population figures of 272 cities in the years 1300–1900, I find no effects of Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is precisely estimated, robust to the inclusion of various controls, and does not depend on data selection or small sample size. Denominational differences in fertility behavior and literacy are unlikely to be major confounding factors. Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development. Instrumental variables estimates, considering the potential endogeneity of religious choice, are similar to the OLS results.
7.（赵婷）师夷长技以制污：美国污染下降的原因？
Levinson A. A Direct Estimate of the Technique Effect: Changes in the Pollution Intensity of US Manufacturing 1990-2008[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014.
Abstract: From 1990 to 2008, the real value of US manufacturing output grew by one-third while the pollution emitted from US factories fell by two-thirds. What accounts for this cleanup? Prior studies have documented that a relatively small share can be explained by changes in the composition of US manufacturing - a shift towards producing relatively more goods whose production processes involve less pollution. Those studies attribute the unexplained majority to "technique", a mix of input substitution, process changes, and end-of-pipe controls. But because that technique effect is a residual left over after other explanations, any errors or interactions in the original calculation could inflate the estimated technique. In this paper I provide the first direct estimate of the technique effect. I combine the National Emissions Inventories with the NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database for each of over 400 manufacturing industries. I aggregate across industries using analogs to the Laspeyres and Paasche price indexes for each of six major air pollutants. The calculations using this direct estimation of the technique effect support the research findings using indirect measures. From 1990 to 2008, production technique changes account for more than 90 percent of the overall cleanup of US manufacturing.
Shapiro J S, Walker R. Why is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, and Preferences[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015.
Abstract: Between 1990 and 2008, emissions of the most common air pollutants from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent, even as real U.S. manufacturing output grew substantially. This paper develops a quantitative model to explain how changes in trade, environmental regulation, productivity, and consumer preferences have contributed to these reductions in pollution emissions. We estimate the model’s key parameters using administrative data on plant-level production and pollution decisions. We then combine these estimates with detailed historical data to provide a model-driven decomposition of the causes of the observed pollution changes. Finally, we compare the model-driven decomposition to a statistical decomposition. The model and data suggest three findings. First, the fall in pollution emissions is due to decreasing pollution per unit output within narrowly defined products, rather than to changes in the types of products produced or changes to the total quantity of manufacturing output. Second, the implicit pollution tax that rationalizes firm production and abatement behavior more than doubled between 1990 and 2008. Third, environmental regulation explains 75 percent or more of the observed reduction in pollution emissions from manufacturing.
8.（曹晖）严刑峻法能减少犯罪吗？
Hansen B. Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014.
Abstract: Traditional economic models of criminal behavior have straightforward predictions: raising the expected cost of crime via apprehension probabilities or punishments decreases crime. I test the effect of harsher punishments on deterring driving under the influence (DUI). In this setting, punishments are determined by strict rules on Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) and previous offenses. Regression discontinuity derived estimates suggest that having a BAC above the DUI threshold reduces recidivism by up to 2 percentage points (17 percent). Likewise having a BAC over the aggravated DUI threshold reduces recidivism by an additional percentage point (9 percent). The results suggest that recent recommendations to lower the BAC limit to .05 would save relatively few lives, while increasing marginal punishments and sanctions monotonically along the BAC distribution would more effectively deter the drunk drivers most likely to be involved in fatal crashes.
9.（倪鹏途）研究生对于导师的生产力有什么影响？
Borjas G J, Doran K B, Shen Y. Ethnic Complementarities after the Opening of China: How Chinese Graduate Students Affected the Productivity of Their Advisors[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015.
Abstract: The largest and most important flow of scientific talent in the world is the migration of international students to the doctoral programs offered by universities in industrialized countries. This paper uses the opening of China in 1978 to estimate the causal effect of this flow on the productivity of their professors in mathematics departments across the United States. Our identification strategy relies on both the suddenness of the opening of China and on a key feature of scientific production: intra-ethnic collaboration. The new Chinese students were more likely to be mentored by American professors with Chinese heritage. The increased access that the Chinese-American advisors had to a new pool of considerable talent led to a substantial increase in their productivity. Despite these sizable intra-ethnic knowledge spillovers, the relatively fixed size of doctoral mathematics programs (and the resulting crowdout of American students) implied that comparable non-Chinese advisors experienced a decline in the number of students they mentored and a concurrent decline in their research productivity. In fact, the productivity gains accruing to Chinese-American advisors were almost exactly offset by the losses suffered by the non-Chinese advisors. Finally, it is unlikely that the gains from the supply shock will be more evident in the next generation, as the Chinese students begin to contribute to mathematical knowledge. The rate of publication and the quality of the output of the Chinese students is comparable to that of the American students in their cohort.
10.（吴辉航）Do property rights matter? Evidence from a property law enactment.
Berkowitz D, Lin C, Ma Y. Do property rights matter? Evidence from a property law enactment[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2015, 116(3): 583-593.
Abstract: This paper considers a property law enactment that gave creditors more rights over the assets underlying their secured loans to private firms and gave private firms more protections against the potential expropriation of their assets. We find that this property law enactment led to a significant increase in firm value. We also find that the law׳s impact on value was more profound for firms with more tangible assets, lower internal cash flows, and stronger growth opportunities, and less profound for politically connected firms. Taken together, our findings confirm the importance of property rights protection in enhancing firm value.
