2014年上半年的workshop文章开始认领。我们将继续在劳动（包括健康、政策评估）、区域和城市、政治经济学、社会经济学、发展经济学等领域内选择论文。时间仍然是每周二下午3点半至5点半，地点在710或714。请参与者积极认领，并与陆铭联系，EMAIL是lm@fudan.edu.cn。workshop的博客将按报告时间发布最新信息和相关评论，参见http://blog.sina.com.cn/developmentcritics。
另外，之前的Workshop还有部分文章非常有趣（如果论文标题前没有姓名），请认领。
(钟辉勇)中国宏观经济非正常态的制度视角
David Dollar, Benjamin F. Jones, “China: An Institutional View of An Unusual Macroeconomy”, working paper.
Abstract
China presents several macroeconomic patterns that appear inconsistent with standard stylized facts about economic development and hence inconsistent with the standard neoclassical growth model. We show that Chinese macroeconomic patterns instead appear consistent with an environment where state control of factor markets can promote aggressive output goals. We consider the micro-institutional features that can sustain this behavior, emphasizing the hukou system and state control over capital allocation, and present a simple model built on these features. The model can explain several puzzling facts about the Chinese economy, including its unusually low labor share and unusually high saving and investment rates. Interestingly, the model also shows that free-market reforms can initially take the economy further from global macroeconomic norms.
下载地址：http://www.nber.org/papers/w19662
（刘婷）城市化的经济史
Maarten Bosker, Eltjo Buringh and Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2013, “From Baghdad to London：The Dynamics of Urban Development in Europe and the Arab World, 800-1800”, working paper.
Abstract
On the basis of a large dataset of individual cities in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, we empirically investigate why, between 800 and 1800, the urban centre of gravity moved from the Arab World to North-Western Europe. We study the characteristics of the urban system(s) involved, and assess the importance of geographical, religious and institutional factors for urban expansion. We find that the choice of main transport mode (camel vs. ship) and the development of local authority in Europe that made cities less dependent on the state, explain Europe’s rise and the Arab World's gradual loss of dynamism.
下载地址：http://www2.econ.uu.nl/users/marrewijk/newgeo/pdf/bagdadnaarlondon-dec2008.pdf
官员与企业
Cohen, Lauren, Joshua Coval, and Christopher J. Malloy, 2011, "Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing? " Journal of Political Economy, 119( 6): 1015–1060.
Abstract
This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanship as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. In doing so, we show that fiscal spending shocks appear to significantly dampen corporate sector investment and employment activity. This retrenchment follows both Senate and House committee chair changes, occurs in large and small firms and within large and small states, and is most pronounced among geographically-concentrated firms. The effects are economically meaningful and the mechanism - entirely distinct from the more traditional interest rate and tax channels - suggests new considerations in assessing the impact of government spending on private sector economic activity.
（张航）资产价格波动与市场的有效性
Peter Koudijs, “The Boats that Did not Sail: Asset Price Volatility and Market Efficiency in a Natural Experiment”, working paper.
Abstract
Financial markets are thought to be inefficient when they move too much relative to the arrival of information. How big is this inefficiency? In today’s markets, this is difficult to determine because the arrival of information is hard to identify. In this paper, I present a natural experiment from history in which the flow of information was regularly interrupted for exogenous reasons. This allows me to study volatility in the absence of news, and to identify the degree of inefficiency. During the 18th century a number of English securities were traded on the Amsterdam exchange. Relevant information from England reached Amsterdam on mail boats. I reconstruct their arrival dates. When no mail boats arrived, virtually no other relevant information reached the Amsterdam market. I measure price volatility during periods with and without news. Even in the absence of new information, security prices moved significantly. Between 50 and 75% of overall volatility did not reflect the arrival of news. A significant fraction of this residual is driven by the incorporation of private information into prices. Once this is taken into account, 20 to 50% of the overall return variance is unexplained by information. This suggests that the Amsterdam market moved more than can be explained by the arrival of news but that the majority of price movements was still the result of efficient price discovery.
下载地址：http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/koudijs/documents/Boats_main.pdf
（徐灏龙）政治与企业价值
Renaud Coulomb and Marc Sangnier, 2013, “Impacts of Political Majorities on Firms Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?” working paper, PSE and Science Po.
Abstract
This paper evaluates simultaneously the values of policy platforms of the two main candidates at the 2007 French presidential election, and the value of friendship connections to one of them. We use prediction market data to track each candidate’s probability of victory and investigate how abnormal returns of firms react to changes in S. Royal and N. Sarkozy probabilities of victory. Our estimates suggest that the value of firms that should benefit from the platforms of S. Royal and N. Sarkozy changed by respectively 1% and 2% due to changes in the candidates’ probabilities of victory, and that firms connected to N. Sarkozy over-performed others by 3% due to his election. We undertake various strategies to demonstrate the robustness of the identification and the causal interpretation of estimated correlations. Keywords: Political majority, prediction markets, firms value, abnormal returns, political connections.
(章诗颖）宗教与对集权的认同
Theocharis Grigoriadis and Benno Torgler, 2013, “Religious Identity, Public Goods and Centralization: Evidence from Russian and Israeli Cities”, working paper.
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the effects of religious identity – defined both as personal identification with a religious tradition and institutional ideas on the provision of public goods – on attitudes toward central government. We explore whether citizens belonging to collectivist rather than individualist religious denominations are more likely to evaluate their central government positively. Moreover, we explore whether adherence to collectivist norms of economic and political organization leads to a positive evaluation of central government. Surveys were conducted in Russia and Israel as these countries provide a mosaic of three major world religions – Judaism, Eastern Orthodoxy and Sunni Islam. The information gathered also allows us to study whether attitudes towards religious institutions such as the Russian Orthodox Church, the Chief Rabbinate in Jerusalem, the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, and the Greek-Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem in Israel are able to predict positive attitudes toward centralized forms of governance. We find strong support for the proposition that collectivist norms and an institutional religious identity enhance positive attitudes towards central government.
下载地址:http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cra:wpaper:2013-14&r=soc
（曹斌）奥运会与健康
Guojun He, “The Effect of Air Pollution on Cardiovascular Mortality: Evidences from the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games”, working paper, UC Berkeley.
Abstract
The exogenous air pollution variations induced by the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games provide a natural experiment to estimate the health effects of air pollution. This study finds that air pollution has a robust and significant effect on cardiovascular mortality in China. A 10 ug/m3 (10 percent) decrease in PM10 mean concentrations decreases monthly cardiovascular mortality by 13.6 percent. The estimates are larger than conventional estimates in the cross-sectional studies and fixed-effects studies.
下载地址：http://are.berkeley.edu/fields/erep/seminar/f2013/ERE_He_Air_and_Health_updated.pdf
国家尺度与制度质量
Heather Congdon Fors, 2014, “Do Island States Have Better Institutions?” Journal of Comparative Economics, 42:34-60
Abstract
Since the end of World War II, the number of countries in the world has increased dramatically. Many of these newly independent countries are small both in terms of population and geography, and several are islands. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of island status and country size on institutional quality, and to determine if these institutional effects can explain the relatively strong economic performance of islands and small countries. I distinguish between political institutions (Democracy) and economic institutions (Rule of Law). One of the main findings of this paper is that the relationship between island status and institutional quality is significantly positive, and that these results are robust to the inclusion of a number of control variables. Further, I find that country size is negatively related to institutional quality, which is in keeping with previous results. These results provide further support for the hypothesis that institutions account for these countries’ relatively better economic performance.
下载地址：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147596713000930
（汤毅）不同企业对汇率的反应
Nicolas Berman, Philippe Martin and Thierry Mayer, 2012 “How Do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes? Theory and Empirics”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127 (1): 437-492.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the reaction of exporters to exchange rate changes. We show that, in the presence of distribution costs in the export market, high and low productivity firms react differently to a depreciation. Whereas high productivity firms optimally raise their markup rather than the volume they export, low productivity firms choose the opposite strategy. This heterogeneity has important consequences for the aggregate impact of exchange rate movements. The presence of fixed costs to export means that only high productivity firms can export, firms which precisely react to an exchange rate depreciation by increasing their export price rather than their sales. We show that this selection effect can explain the weak impact of exchange rate movements on aggregate export volumes. We then test the main predictions of the model on a very rich French firm level data set with destination specific export values and volumes on the period 1995-2005. Our results confirm that high performance firms react to a depreciation by increasing their export price rather than their export volume. The reverse is true for low productivity exporters. Pricing to market by exporters is also more pervasive in sectors and countries with higher distribution costs. Another result consistent with our theoretical framework is that the probability of firms to enter the export market following a depreciation increases. The extensive margin response to exchange rate changes is modest at the aggregate level because firms that enter, following a depreciation, are less productive and smaller relative to existing firms.
（曹晖）全球劳动收入占比下降
Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman, 2014, “The Global Decline of the Labor Share”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129 (1): 61-103
Abstract
The stability of the labor share of income is a key foundation in macroeconomic models. We document, however, that the global labor share has significantly declined since the early 1980s, with the decline occurring within the large majority of countries and industries. We show that the decrease in the relative price of investment goods, often attributed to advances in information technology and the computer age, induced firms to shift away from labor and toward capital. The lower price of investment goods explains roughly half of the observed decline in the labor share, even when we allow for other mechanisms influencing factor shares, such as increasing profits, capital-augmenting technology growth, and the changing skill composition of the labor force. We highlight the implications of this explanation for welfare and macroeconomic dynamics.
（熊瑞祥）区域政策评估
Patrick Kline and Enrico Moretti, 2014, “Local Economic Development, Agglomeration Economies, and the Big Push: 100 Years of Evidence From the Tennessee Valley Authority”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129 (1): 275-331
Abstract
We study the long-run effects of one of the most ambitious regional development programs in U.S. history: the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Using as controls authorities that were proposed but never approved by Congress, we find that the TVA led to large gains in agricultural employment that were eventually reversed when the program’s subsidies ended. Gains in manufacturing employment, by contrast, continued to intensify well after federal transfers had lapsed—a pattern consistent with the presence of agglomeration economies in manufacturing. Because manufacturing paid higher wages than agriculture, this shift raised aggregate income in the TVA region for an extended period of time. Economists have long cautioned that the local gains created by place based policies may be offset by losses elsewhere. We develop a structured approach to assessing the TVA’s aggregate consequences that is applicable to other place-based policies. In our model, the TVA affects the national economy both directly through infrastructure improvements and indirectly through agglomeration economies. The model’s estimates suggest that the TVA’s direct investments yielded a significant increase in national manufacturing productivity, with benefits exceeding the program’s costs. However, the program’s indirect effects appear to have been limited: agglomeration gains in the TVA region were offset by losses in the rest of the country. Spillovers in manufacturing appear to be the rare example of a localized market failure that cancels out in the aggregate.
企业的分布与城市的集聚
Cecile Gaubert, “Firm Sorting and Agglomeration,” Princeton University, Job Market Paper.
Abstract
The distribution of firms in space is far from uniform. Some locations host the most productive large firms, while others barely attract any. In this paper, I study the sorting of heterogeneous firms across locations and analyze policies designed to attract firms to particular regions (place-based policies). I first propose a theory of the distribution of heterogeneous firms in a variety of sectors across cities. Aggregate TFP and welfare depend on the extent of agglomeration externalities produced in cities and on how heterogeneous firms sort across them. The distribution of city sizes and the sorting patterns of firms are uniquely determine din equilibrium. This allows me to structurally estimate the model, using French firm-level data. I find that nearly two thirds of the observed productivity advantage of large cities is due to firm sorting. I use the estimated model to quantify the general equilibrium effects of place-based policies. I find that policies that decrease local congestion lead to a new spatial equilibrium with higher aggregate TFP and welfare. In contrast, policies that subsidize under-developed areas have negative aggregate effects.
(冯净冰）同群效应与自我控制
Berno Buechel, Lydia Mechtenberg and Julia Petersen, "Peer Effects and Students' self-Control". Working paper, Department of Economics, University of Hamburg
Abstract
We conducted a multiwave field experiment to study the interaction of peer effects and self control among undergraduate students. We use a behavioral measure of self-control based on whether students achieve study related goals they have set for themselves. We find that both self-control and the number of talented friends increase students' performance. We then set out to test the theoretical prediction of Battaglini, Bénabou and Tirole (2005) that (only) sufficiently self-controlled individuals profit from interactions with peers. We find that peers with high self-control are more likely to connect to others, have a higher overall number of friends and have a higher number of talented friends. Moreover, positive news about self-controlled behavior of their peers increases students' own perseverance. Hence, our findings are consistent with the model of Battaglini, Bénabou and Tirole. In addition, we find that female students are more likely to have high self-control, but do not outperform male students. One reason for this is that female students have a lower number of talented friends than their male counterparts, thereby profiting less from positive peer effects.
（王旸）文革的遗产
Liang Bai, "Economic Legacies of the Cultural Revolution", Job Market Paper, Department of Economics, UC Berkeley.
Abstract
This paper investigates the economic legacies of the Cultural Revolution in rural China.With its purported goals of tackling inequality and forestalling a “capitalist restoration,” the decade of 1966-1976 witnessed widespread violence, much of it directed towards the educated elite. Using a unique county-level dataset on collective killings, coupled with original economic data collected from archives of regional gazetteers, I investigate the extent to which this historic event yielded different trajectories of development across regions in China. To address endogeneity concerns, I control for pre-revolution outcomes and exploit transitory shocks to agricultural income during the period of violence as an instrument. Empirical results show that more revolutionary regions were slower to industrialize, had lower levels of education and per-capita output. These effects are large in magnitude, detectable more than thirty years later, and in some cases begin to decline at longer time horizons. Trust-based informal lending appears to have been adversely affected, while the timing of policy reforms does not.
四万亿政策的效果
Yi Wen and Jing Wu, “Withstanding Great Recession like China," working paper
Abstract
The Great Recession was characterized by two related phenomena: (i) a jobless recovery and (ii) a permanent drop in aggregate output. Data show that the United States, Europe, and even countries with lesser ties to the international financial system have suffered large permanent losses in aggregate output and employment since the financial crisis, despite unprecedented monetary injections. However, the symptoms of the Great Recession were not observed in China, despite a 45% permanent drop in its exports—— one of the largest trade collapses in world history since the Great Depression. Our empirical analysis shows that China’s success in escaping the Great Recession is attributable to its bold and powerful 4 trillion renminbi stimulus package launched in late 2008. We study the precise channels through which the stimulus programs work in China. We also construct a simple model to rationalize the dramatically different impacts of stimulus programs across countries.
（钟辉勇）动态承诺与预算软约束
Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2010, “Dynamic Commitment and the Soft Budget Constraint: An Empirical Test”, 2(3): 154-179
Abstract
This paper develops an empirical framework for the problem of soft budgets which is explicitly based on a dynamic commitment problem, i.e., the inability of a supporting organization to commit itself not to extend more resources ex post to a budget-constrained organization than it was prepared to provide ex ante. Swedish local governments are used as a testing ground since the central government distributed a large number of fiscal transfers. The estimated soft-budget effect is economically significant: on average, a local government increases its debt by more than 20 percent by going from a hard to a soft budget constraint.
创新与机构投资者
Philippe Aghion, John Van Reenen, and Luigi Zingales, 2013, “Innovation and Institutional Ownership”, American Economic Review, 103(1): 277–304.
Abstract
We find that greater institutional ownership is associated with more innovation. To explore the mechanism, we contrast the “lazy manager” hypothesis with a model where institutional owners increase innovation incentives through reducing career risks. The evidence favors career concerns. First, we find complementarity between institutional ownership and product market competition, whereas the lazy manager hypothesis predicts substitution. Second, CEOs are less likely to be fired in the face of profit downturns when institutional ownership is higher. Finally, using instrumental variables, policy changes, and disaggregating by type of institutional owner, we argue that the effect of institutions on innovation is causal.
（钟辉勇）政府间转移支付对经济影响
Litschig, Stephan; Morrison, Kevin M., 2013, “The Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Education Outcomes and Poverty Reduction”, AEJ: Applied Economics, 5(4):206-240.
Abstract
This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on development impacts of intergovernmental transfers. Extra transfers in Brazil increased local government spending per capita by about 20 percent over a 4 year period with no evidence of crowding out own revenue or other revenue sources. Schooling per capita increased by about 7 percent and literacy rates by about 4 percentage points. In line with the effect on human capital, the poverty rate was reduced by about 4 percentage points. Somewhat noisier results also suggest that the reelection probability of local incumbent parties in the 1988 elections improved by about 10 percentage points.
