首位城市该多大？国家规模、全球化和城市化的影响
陈钊、陆铭
2014，《学术月刊》，第5期，5-16页
摘要：本文通过跨国数据研究了一国的首位城市的决定因素，这对于理解一国人口的空间分布是个核心问题。本文发现，一个国家总人口规模是决定其首位城市有多大的最为重要的因素，在全球142个国家（经济体）的样本中，仅仅国家人口规模（对数值）这一个变量便可以解释该国首位城市人口规模（对数值）的84.64%。此外，全球化和城市化的进程更是会加强人口向首位城市的集聚。根据本文的研究结论，上海将在未来成为全球最大的城市。上海的面积是东京都的三倍，考虑到这一点，与东京都历史上的同阶段相比，上海在过去30年中的人口增长速度是与经济增长速度相适应的。中国大城市的发展规划和公共政策应以未来人口增长的科学预测为基础，通过技术和管理手段来提高城市生活质量。相反，通过行政手段人为限制人口向特大城市集聚，将可能强化城市的“新二元结构”，危害城市的和谐发展。
关键词：首位城市、人口规模、全球化、城市化
Abstract: This paper studies how a primary city’s population is determined using a cross-country data set, which is a key issue to understand the spatial distribution of a country’s population. We find that a country’s total population is the most important determinant of its primary city’s population. Using the sample of 142 countries, one single variable, a country’s total population, can explain 84.86% of the variation of the primary city’s population. Furthermore, globalization and urbanization can both promote the agglomeration of population in the primary city. Based on the findings, Shanghai will become the largest city in the world. Similar to the same stage in Tokyo’s history, but 3 times larger than Tokyo in term of its area, Shanghai has had a fast population growth which is a result of economic development in the past two decades. The urban planning and public policy of China’s mega-cities should be based on scientific forecast of future population growth. Technology and management should be both used to improve urban life quality. In contrast, if simply control population growth in mega-cities, it could strengthen the “New Urban Dualism”, and damage the harmonious development.
Key words: Primary city, Population size, Globalization, Urbanization
