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U.S.-China trade frictions and supply chain reconstruction: Perspective from indirect links

作者:luochangyuan 阅读: 发布:2025-05-22
期刊 Journal of International Money and Finance 刊号 出版时间2025 卷151 文献号103256
作者 Luo, Changyuan; Wang, Ning 论文链接
【期      刊】 Journal of International Money and Finance
【出版信息】 出版信息
【刊      号】 出版时间2025 卷151 文献号103256
【作      者】 Luo, Changyuan; Wang, Ning
【PDF下载】 点击下载论文附件
【关  键 词】 Supply chain reconstruction; Trade disputes; Indirect links
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【摘      要】

Building on the theoretical discussions, the paper empirically investigates how U.S.-China trade frictions impact the supply chain through the perspective of indirect links. It utilizes data of U.S. listed firms from 2014 to 2022 and employs a difference-in-differences model for analysis. The baseline estimation finds that U.S. firms tend to establish supply chain relations with third country firms deeply integrated into Chinese supply chain after 2018. Mechanism analysis shows that after trade frictions occur, U.S. firms choose to maintain indirect supply chain connections with China through third countries based on considerations of procedural costs, financial costs, and relational costs. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that U.S. firms in industries directly affected by trade frictions or in industries where China has supply chain advantages are inclined to make such adjustments, tending to engage in indirect cooperation with Chinese firms through thirdcountry firms that have pre-existing supply chain collaborations with Chinese firms. Extended analysis examines the supply chain adjustments of other countries or regions after the trade frictions. We find that Chinese firms increase their supply chain connections with third countries and increase green-field investment in these countries. U.S. allies also adjust their supply chains like the U.S., while non-U.S. allies do not make any adjustments. Hence, the paper believes that the “decoupling” strategy may be difficult to achieve, and trade restrictions only lead to U.S. firms maintaining indirect relations with China through third countries.