微观模拟模型分析中的时化方法
Ageing Methods in Microsimulation Analysis: A Review
何立新 袁艺豪
复旦大学经济学院
【摘要】本文对微观模拟方法在收入再分配等公共政策研究的应用方法进行了评述。围绕模拟实验和校准两大步骤，首先阐述了微观模拟在收入再分配研究方面的主要应用领域及其发展轨迹，然后从人口学模块、经济学模块和税收与养老金模块分别总结了多种动态微观模拟时化方法的共同点、优缺点及适用范围，对婚姻市场、劳动力市场等重点模拟模块进行了详细介绍，并介绍了校准的目的、原理和方法，评述了微观模拟方法的优势和发展方向。
【关键词】微观模拟，时化，校准
Abstract: This paper reviews the application of micro simulation in public policy researches income redistribution. Focusing on the two major steps of micro simulation, process modules and alignment, the author firstly describes the main applicable areas and the history of micro simulation on income redistribution research. The author also concludes the common points, advantages, disadvantages and scopes of several micro simulation methods, from the demographic model, economic model and tax and pension model respectively, and introduces detailed methods used in significant modules like marriage market and labor market. Finally, the author makes a summary on the purpose, principle and methods of alignment, and reviews the advantages and development tendency of micro simulation.
Key Words: Microsimulation; Ageing; Alignment
