报告人：张爽(Assistant Professor, University of Colorado Boulder, US)
时间：2016年5月9日- 5月18日，下午6:00-8:30
地点：复旦大学经济学院801会议室
主办：复旦大学当代中国经济与社会工作室
Research design and China’s development
Shuang Zhang
University of Colorado Boulder
shuang.zhang@colorado.edu
March 20, 2016
1 Goals of the Course
This course has two goals: 1) to survey what is possible, interesting, and convincing in applied micro research on China, and (2) to learn how to design and implement credible research on China.
2 Presentation opportunities (voluntary)
Note that these are not exams. To get most out of the course, I encourage you to either present an oral referee report or present your own research in the class. I’ll be happy to provide feedback on your research.
1. Oral Referee report (in four classes)
Present a referee report on a paper that studies China (e.g., using powerpoint), with your assessment of whether the paper should be published in a top journal (leaving aside whether/where it is already published). This report is not a summary of the paper, but a critique of the analysis, its contribution relative to the existing literature, and especially, the soundness of the identification strategy. Eligible papers are listed with * in the reading list at the end of the syllabus.
If you are interested in presenting a referee report, please sign up with me after the first class.
2. Research sketch (last class)
Present your research sketch to class (e.g., using powerpoint) in the last class on May 18th.
Propose a new research design that can be used to evaluate a question of interest to you. Key to this exercise is your argument as to why the treatment/policy is not related to other determinants of the outcome of interest. The sketch should describe:
(a) What is the causal relationship of interest?
(b) Leaving cost and ethical considerations aside, what is the ideal experiment youwould run?
(c) In an observational setting, what is the identification strategy? (This is the critical piece of the assignment.)
You should identify the real-world dataset in which your research question can be evaluated. No results are necessary, just a viable action plan. I.E., you must propose an analysis of existing data that are available to researchers. Consult with me in advance on your topic of choice in office hours. Ideally, this sketch will be served as a platform for executing the analysis in the future.
3 Course Schedule
Week 1: May 9th: 6-8:30pm; 10th: 6-8:30pm; 11th: 6-8:30pm
Week 2: May 16th: 6-8:30pm; 17th: 6-8:30pm; 18th: 6-8:30pm
4 Class materials and reading list
For each class in May 10th-17th, the paper with * is for the assignment of oral referee report.
4.1 Research design and causal inference (recap): May 9th
Angrist and Pischke (2009) will be frequently referred to.
Angrist, Joshua D., & Pischke, Jorn-Steffen. 2009. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
4.2 Sex Ratio Imbalance: May 10th
1. * Oster, Emily. 2005. Hepatitis B and the Case of the Missing Women. Journal of Political Economy, 113(6), 1163-1216.
2. Qian, Nancy. 2008. “Missing Women and the Price of Tea in China: The Effect of Sex-Specific Income on Sex Imbalance.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 123(3): 1251-85.
3. Ebenstein, Avraham. 2010. “The "Missing Girls" of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy.” Journal of Human Resources, 45(1):87-115.
4. Almond, Douglas, Hongbin Li and Shuang Zhang. 2013. “Land Reform and Sex Selection in China.” NBER Working Paper No. 19153.
4.3 Environment: May 11th
1. * Chen, Yuyu, Avraham Ebenstein, Michael Greenstone and Hongbin Li. 2013. “Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China’s Huai River Policy.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
(working paper version: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2291154)
2. Yuyu Chen, Ginger Zhe Jin, Naresh Kumar, and Guang Shi. 2012. “Gaming in Air Pollution Data? Lessons from China.” The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, Advances tier, Volume 13, Issue 3.
3. Kahn, Matthew E., Pei Li, and Daxuan Zhao. 2015. "Water Pollution Progress at Borders: The Role of Changes in China’s Political Promotion Incentives." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(4): 223-42.
4. Zhong, Nan. 2015. “Superstitious Driving Restriction: Traffic Congestion, Ambient Air Pollution, and Health in Beijing.” job market paper.
https://www.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/dept/seminar/14-15/2nd-term/JMP_NZ.pdf
4.4 Political Economy: May 16th
1. * Qian, Nancy and Jaya Wen. 2015. “The Impact of Xi Jinping’s Anti-Corruption Campaign on Luxury Imports in China.” Working paper.
http://aida.wss.yale.edu/~nq3/NANCYS_Yale_Website/resources/papers/QianWen_20150403.pdf
2. Lan, Xiaohuan and Wei Li. 2015. “Swiss Watch Cycles: Evidence of Corruption During Leadership Transition in China.” Working paper.
http://xiaohuanlan.weebly.com/uploads/1/9/1/3/19133549/watch-1.8-empirical-xl.pdf
3. Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Li-An Zhou. 2014. “The Gradients of Power: Evidence from the Chinese Housing Market.” NBER Working Paper No. 20317.
4. Fisman, Raymond and Yongxiang Wang. 2015. “The Mortality Cost of Political Connections.” Review of Economic Studies, 82 (4): 1346-1382.
5. Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, Xiao Yu Wang and Shuang Zhang. “The One Child Policy and Promotion of Mayors in China.” NBER Working Paper No. 21963.
4.5 Curriculum and Media: May 17th
1. * Davide Cantoni, Yuyu Chen, David Yang, Noam Yuchtman, Jane Zhang. forthcoming. “Curriculum and Ideology.” Journal of Political Economy.
(NBER WP version: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20112)
2. Qin, Bei. 2013. “Chinese Microblogs and Drug Quality.” job market paper.
http://www.sef.hku.hk/~beiqin/files/Chinese_microblogs_and_drug_quality_april_2013.pdf
3. Qin, Bei, David Stromberg and Yanhui Wu. 2014. “Media Bias in Autocracies: Evidence from China.” Working Paper.
http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~yanhuiwu/MediaBias1.pdf
4. Qin, Bei, David Stromberg and Yanhui Wu. 2014. “The Political Economy of Social Media in China.” Working Paper.
http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~yanhuiwu/socialmedia_JEP.pdf
4.6 Student presentations: May 18th
